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Analyze This: Will 'Casual' Games Dominate the Future of the Industry?
"I refute [the] observation that the young male demographic is shrinking. The casual gaming market is larger only in the sense that more people are interested in casual games. It is not larger in the sense of dollars spent. "In other words, every receptionist in America will play Solitaire (for free) on a PC during the work day, since it comes with Windows. So Solitaire may have 20 million active players. However, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, with only 15 million discs sold, is likely to be a 'larger' game than solitaire when measured in dollars.
"Casual games are a big part of growth for the industry, but I don't think that they constitute 'the future.' All hardcore gamers started with simple or casual games. Thus, casual gaming appeals to hardcore gamers and the mass market alike. I think this explains the traction of Xbox Live Arcade, as it is highly likely that the early Xbox 360 purchasers fall into the hardcore camp rather than the mass-market camp. "'Traditional' games are likely to continue to become more realistic, with emphasis on story and character development, and this area will continue to dominate game sales. We will see more consumer interaction, better graphics, better music, and integration of other forms of media become more prevalent as the more sophisticated boxes become a staple in households. "Content will be more 'sticky' if the experience becomes more immersive, and I think that ultra realistic graphics matter to consumers in making the experience more immersive. This is not a niche, but is rather the base business going forward."
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