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Over the years, certainly in the high-tech/internet sectors, there has been a lot of talk of something called “Disruption”. Google disrupts Microsoft, Facebook disrupts Myspace, Apple disrupts with iPod and iPad combined ith its Appstores, the Wii disrupts HD-efforts, the 3DS disrupts Sony’s 3D-efforts and so forth. But what is this Disruption really? Wikipedia gives a small but superficial taste and you also have the three books by Prof. Christensen (the maker of Disruption Theory). But it relies heavily on examples and abstract theory forming to give you a insight into disruption instead of actually explaining the basis of Disruption. I will try to remedy this.
But first, why is Disruption important for videogames? Well, videogame history is heavily defined by the processes of Disruption. Writing a History of Videogames in the last years without using Disruption is now actually a sign of incompetence and lack of true insight into gaming’s history. Videogames at their start were highly Disruptive. Video-arcades disrupted slot-machines, Videogame consoles paved the way for the Computer/PC boom, no seriously think about it: what was the first computer-like object millions of families had? It was a videogame console. Ranging from the Atari 2600, NES and even SNES and Megadrive, the first computer-like device in tens of millions of homes were videogame consoles before an actual computer/PC entered those tens of millions of home. Also, videogame consoles disrupted the video-arcade (part of why video-arcades stagnated from 1983 onwards). Videogames paved the way for the e-generation(s) happening now.
The NES/SNES/Megadrive disrupted cartoons, again very serious about this. The reason for the creation behind the Simpsons, South Park and other more mature-aimed cartoons from the 90’s and onward was because videogames were replacing cartoons. In a first phase cross-breeding. Disney and Warner Bros. Characters became videogame characters while Mario and Sonic became cartoon characters.
The Gameboy would then disrupt consoles, Activision disrupted Atari as the first third party, Shareware disrupted traditional distribution channels and gave rise to studio’s like iD Software. Flash games are disrupting…well…a lot. The Wii disrupted traditional thinking behind gameconsoles. Hell, if you would make a proper timeline of all the major Disruptions that videogaming has created, you would come to an average of nearly a Disruption every 5 years (a bit more). No industry sector has this speed…and considering Moore’s law, it will only speed up even more.
Also notice that Disruptions have a knack at replacing an established product/sector/company/power by taking over functions (by doing them more cheaply and/or efficient) from the established entity over a period of time. This is what a Disruption does.
But what is Disruption at its core? A Disruption uses two basic economc laws: The law of diminishing returns and the Ricardian process of comparative advantages.
For those who are not familiar: The law of diminishing returns is about repeated use or investment of/in something and the result/return you get from them. For example, you have run a race, at the finish you are very thirsty so you consume a drink. Afterwards you feel quite less thirsty but not entirely satisfied so you consume another drink. This second drink will satisfy less of your thirst then the first one and so on. And one point, consuming another drink will hardly satisfy you because there’s nothing left to satisfy (thirst-wise). There's even a possibility that consuming more drinks after that point, those drinks could become harmful, having a negative return.
A more economically example. Consider a piece of farmland which you work alone. On your own, you can’t work the entire surface of the farmland effectively, so hiring someone as help boosts the return heavily. Hiring a third one and so on also boosts return. But there is a point where hiring more people will get you less and less returns for that hired person. There’s even a point where the return will become negative. Now let’s apply this to todays HD-consoles with these two facts: higher costs and a far smaller user-base (since the HD-consoles have failed the absorb a major part of the PS2-audience). The investments go up enormously but the returns are, generally speaking, mostly negative with third parties having to sell from 250 000 to a million copies to actually break-even (coming from 50 000-100 000 on the PS2). This is the effect of the law of diminishing returns kicking in. This has been the deathtrap for a lot of companies and sectors in history, hoping that vast investments, which creates so-called “superior” product will net them the same returns as the smaller investments in the past.
So what does a Disruption do with this law? It actually resets the curve of the diminishing returns in some aspects or all (or by introducing a new aspect) within a certain sector/product. Take the Atari 2600. What was the main attraction of the Atari 2600? It allowed people to play arcade games at the leasure of their home without keeping to pour in coins. Sure, the ports were most of the time “inferior” but people didn’t seem to care. The Atari 2600 in effect reseted the curve of diminishing returns on arcades. Video-arcades needed custom-made chip-boards which were expensive, the Atari 2600 was the same for years, becoming cheaper to make over time. The Gameboy did the same thing, resetting the graphics aspect of consoles, taking over the functions of the NES. With the GBA, handhelds completely took over 2D-gaming from consoles and so forth. The Wii stopped the curve on the graphics and reseted it on terms of controls.
Keep in mind, disruptions almost always start as “inferior” compared to the established traditional path because they reset the curve. But because they reset this curve, they have more room for long-term growth when applying their improvements. These improvements off course need to make sense. One the reasons why Apple keeps getting such success all these years is because Apple knows how to improve their products on a moderate pace. Incorporating new technology when it is affordable. A counter-example is the 3DS that has a high chance of hitting the diminishing curve quite high because 3D in general isn’t considered worthwhile by the core-markets (HD is half a failure in this regard, 3D is way higher on the diminishing returns curve then HD).
And what about the Ricardian proces of comparative advantages? This proces actually explains international trade and the benefits from it. Ricardo (the guy wrote this in the 18th century) found out that if country A has an advantage in making product Y and country B has an advantage in making product Z, it is most beneficial if both countries specialise in making the products they have an advantage in and then trade with each other for the other good. These comparative advantages of course are not set in stone. France is historically good at making wine, but that doesn't mean others can’t create comparative advantages to off-set this (looking at you South-Africa). Belgian chocolate is the best of the world because the Belgian government at one point in history decreed that all chocolate made in Belgium should have a (quite high) minimum percentage of cacao in it, giving it the rich flavour of Belgian chocolate and accustoming the makers of it to the process.
Disruptions, and especially the companies that carry them, are well, disruptive, because they create favorable comparative advantages for themselves compared to the established companies. Most of the time this advantage comes from being higly specialised in a certain thing (a company’s so-called internal processes). This specialization then gives them clear cost-advantages compared to bigger (and probably more branched-out) companies, this is also called the assymmetric skill in Disruption’s literature.
Compare Apple or Nintendo with Sony and Microsoft. The first are specialised software/hardware hybrids and don’t really deviate from their chosen product-line, giving them clear advantages (especially in cost) towards the latter. A good example of this is the GameCube vs Xbox/PS2. Despite the GameCube being almost as powerfull as the Xbox but having the same price-point a the PS2, Nintendo managed to make profit from almost each sold GC (expect for a couple of months when the price went 99 dollars/euro’s). This is because Nintendo’s processes, it’s comparative advantages, are highly specialised in making a very efficient and affordable piece of hardware. Sony and Microsoft are not specialized consolemakers, which shows greatly (profit-wise and/or quality-wise).
This combined resetting of the diminishing returns curve and the comparative advantages that disruptive companies posses is one of the reasons why you heard so much about “small, agile, mostly young companies out-maneuvering big ones” the last couple of years.
Also, an extra note. This is article is not supposed to replace or go against Disruption literature. This was an attempt to dig deeper into the core-processes of an Disuption in general. A reading of the books by Prof. Christensen is higly advised and recommended, combined with these insights, to get a full understanding of Disruption.
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Social Psychology tells us that human beings are extremely good at "Monday morning quarterbacking." We can look at couples that are similar and say: "Well, makes sense 'birds of a feather flock together.'" And couples that are different and say: "Well, everyone knows 'opposites attract.'"
These explanations are only effective in so far as they allow us to successfully predict the future (which is not at all in the case of these contradictory sayings). I've heard people appeal to Disruption to support the prediction that Wii will continue to destroy all comers, because Nintendo's competitors are always behind the curve.
Well, the numbers aren't showing that now -- and the Wii seems to be slumping pretty hard, while the Xbox360 is really catching its stride. And what about the countless completely novel technologies that came out at the same time as these success stories that sunk in to obscurity? Does Disruption truly give us a magic method to distinguish between radical ideas that will succeed and those that will fail (so we can all get rich in the stock market)? I know this is beyond the scope of your article here, but I'm just curious.
There are some conditions to use Disruption Theory effectively.
1) Know the theory. Sounds self-evidently but this is a quite comprehensive theory (comprised out of different theories bundled togheter) and some aspects of it can be mistaken or easily mis-used. Also quite some aspects within the framework are explained quite abstract and practical application becomes more difficult without proper insight.
2) Know the companies and sector you want to predict stuff on. The reason why I was able to "predict" the iPad was because I know, from the bottom-up, how Apple works and what's its product-strategy is (pro-tip: it is not what you read in their press releases or what the press thinks it is).
3) Make it yourself easy and use basic economic theory to aid yourself (like product-life cycles). For example, you say the numbers now are proving the theory wrong. They're not if you look at it long-term (the great weakness of videogame analysis and journalism). The Xbox360 is actually on shaky ground. The boost it has now is still from the new model (as the PS3 had, which has faultered by now), this will dissapear as it did with the PS3. Also Kinect isn't looking so sharp because of one reason: games. Everyone seems to talk about Kinect as the device on itself, never about the actual games. In the VIDEOGAME industry, that's a red flag. If sales of games don't pick up in the next months, the hardware sales of Kinect will go into the dump. And also again, The Xbox360 and PS3 have failed miserably with absorbing last-gen audience (with over 50% still out there) aka you have rising costs but a far smaller market...you can do the math yourself.
Also, Nintendo is kinda fucking up it's Wii-disruption and this is also an important aspect about disruption: it needs a good followthrough from within the company strategy-wise. Nintendo needs to keep making games like WiiFit and NSMB, games that will sell 15 million + but it barely hasn't the last two years. instead giving the green light to pet-projects like Metroid Other M and Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Iwata should have cancelled it's development the moment NSMBWii outsold SMG 1 by a landslide). Thank god Nintendo also knows how to stay profitable, they'll need that. MS and Sony barely know how to be profitable within Videogaming. Which is why investors are calling MS to drop the Xbox-division.
So yes, Disruption theory can be, and is used, to predict the success of new products. But you have to utilize it in its pure essence and not get distracted by the faulty reporting by the press or even you're own traditional way of thinking. Someone said that a Disruption is "a crappy product for crappy consumers", pointing to the fact that disruptions indeed are perceived as "inferior" (based on the traditional value of quality) selling to "inferior" customers (based on the lower profit margins you can achieve from the low-end markets). Coming to grounds with this kind of thinking is sometimes very difficult, especially if it's about your own beloved industry/products.
To counter your Wii example: the Wii product may be on a gradual decline, but Nintendo is hardly in trouble. They made a giant wad of profits, and they've already moved on to their next disruptive project with the 3DS. Each time Nintendo succeeds at this - and they've done it twice consecutively so far - they can "punch past their weight" for a time. If they fail and times get leaner for them as in the Gamecube era, they can still fall back on the brand and overall product quality to see them through to the next try.
Their competition, meanwhile, are still working on their respective attempts to ape the Wii's powers - Move and Kinect. And they're floundering, because they missed the lion's share of that market. We now legitimately recognize the market for motion-sensitive games, so going forward, that technology isn't an advantage by itself. The limitations of the technology and basic usability concerns have correspondingly limited the games that can be made and the market size of motion-sensitive gaming, but for a few years, it grew gaming substantially.
So while I wouldn't agree with "the Wii will continue to dominate" as a thesis, it isn't really necessary for it to do so. Apple, similarly, has moved on from the original iPod/iTunes concept; although there were both MP3 players and online music stores before the iPod, they didn't integrate the two, and competitors trying to imitate that particular combination of features/marketing afterwards were just too slow. Even though the original iTunes market still exists, it's all about the iPhone and iPad now.
The key takeaway, really, is the accelerating rate of change in technology. The nature of "game platforms" themselves is blurring - the difference between a phone, a desktop, and a console is just not that huge anymore. AAA-grade web gaming projects are practically just around the corner, if you can justify those budgets. Custom DIY hardware is getting pretty exciting. OnLive's potential for design innovation hasn't even really been touched.
If you want to go disrupt something, it's definitely out there to find somewhere. But there's also definitely no one "sure thing" anymore. There's dozens of them, all competing with each other for your time and attention.
Actually, Christensen first formulated the theory after intensively studying the storage devices industry (hard disk, flash drives and the lot) after a friend called the sector the "fruit-fly equivalent in the economy". The 2004 book even starts with a few dozen pages about formulating theories and puts heavy emphasis on empirical data and real-life observation within the theory-forming.
The lack of experiment-driven research, especially with this company/sector-centered one, is because of the lack in research technology. This lack however is not considered a bad thing within the sciences. We all knew that the moon can eclipse the sun from repeated observations but we don't have the technology to create a experiment around that concept (aka, we can't move the moon repeatedly in front of the sun from different angles and distances). Intensive observation and collecting empirical data is considered scientific valid.
The lack of an experiment-possibility just means the theory can't become a law. This is also why the relativity theory is not a law yet, because we don't have the technology yet to put it fully to the test.
Microsoft and Sony clearly overshot the core-market, well actually, the 3D-gens have been overshooting the market clearly. Established players can also react to disruptions which can potentially cut it short. Kinect and Move are not such reactions but are called "cramming". It's when a established player just copies the disruptee superfically but don't implement the unique dynamic of the Disruption within its own company.
I thought Nintendo was using a more blue ocean stratergy with the DS and 3DS than distruption. Handhelds have slowly been distrupting consoles for a long time. In japan consoles are already looking to become the niche market if they are not already.
I think 3D content is also a niche market , but whoever can get the first popular 3D content system out would stand the chance of making a lot of money.